This leaves all three countries under the US-led sanctions regime to varying degrees and, unsurprisingly, they are starting to work more closely with each other. Iran is in its final stages achieving full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security forum led by China and Russia. China helped intermediary in the Entente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:more and more worriedthat China can supply weapons to Russia to help Ukraine. Relations between Iran and Russia mushroomed during the war in Ukraine, and National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called it “full scale defense partnership“.
The United States has good reason to oppose all three countries. China is a similar competitor that has become increasingly authoritarian and militant during Xi Jinping’s rule. The Iranian regime remains highly illiberal, pursuing policies that threaten US allies in the Middle East. Russia’s actions in Ukraine speak for themselves. Still when you throw accusations like North Korea alleged arms sales It sometimes seems to Russia that the United States themselves inspired the less comical Legion of Doom.
This nascent alliance fuels the American tendency to lump all US adversaries into one basket. At the height of the Cold War, many American politicians considered the communist bloc to be monolithic. In this century, part of the foreign policy community has often argued that the United States is facing the Axis of something. In January 2002, George W. Bush called on Iran, Iraq and North Korea to his state of the art address, warning that “states like these and their terrorist allies are an axis of evil arming to threaten world peace.” Although none of these countries were examples of virtue, they did not cooperate with each other or with al-Qaeda. Ten years later, during the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney’s foreign policy warned of an emerging authoritarian axis. Romney’s warning was dismissed at the time, but over the past year observers from all over the world V political range wholeheartedly embraced this idea. The vague anxiety felt by American observers that much of the Global South does not support sanctions against Russia fuels this fear that much of the world is uniting against the United States.
At the moment it is hard to deny that Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others take actions contrary to the interests of the United States. However, it is not clear that cooperation between these countries is more than tactical. For Iran and North Korea, any opportunity to deceive the United States and break out of its current economic isolation is a welcome move. Similarly, Russia desperately needs help from either side as a means of dealing with the losses that conflict between sanctions and war on the Russian economy. All the historical grievances and fears that Russia, China and Iran have for each other have not magically disappeared, they have simply been sublimated by their collective resistance to US pressure.
The United States can respond to this emerging coalition in one of two ways, both unappetizing. One approach is to adopt a Manichaean worldview and continue to pursue policies that oppose these groups of countries for the foreseeable future. Looking at each country in this nascent Legion of Doom, the United States has a strong case for sanctions and other forms of containment. Iran has a nuclear and ballistic missile program and has spent heavily to destabilize US allies in the Middle East. Russia has repeatedly invaded its neighbors and is responsible for unleashing the largest interstate war in Europe since World War II. Apart from this egregious fact, Vladimir Putin was quite ready to harm NATO countries, from disinformation campaigns to assassination attempts on dissidents. China wolf warrior diplomacy Abroad and increasing repression at home is not consistent with being a responsible participant. North Korea… well, this is North Korea.
While lumping America’s adversaries together may seem conceptually appealing, it also creates complications. First, it makes it much more difficult to build containment coalitions. For example, India may go along with containing China, but historical ties will make it harder to counter Russia. The US will have no choice but to rely on ad hoc coalitions that are not fully synchronized.
A more serious problem is that the Manichaean worldview overlooks the many ways in which US foreign policy flourished when it divided rather than united opposing coalitions. A key element of George Kennan’s containment doctrine was exploiting cracks in the communist bloc. This led to warmer relations with Tito’s Yugoslavia in the 1950s and Mao’s China in the 1970s. None of these countries looked like liberal democracies, but the United States found a common reason with them to focus on the greater threat, the Soviet Union. (Oddly enough, this point is at the heart of the Republican Party’s opposition to Ukraine’s support against Russia. For some in the MAGA crowd China is a big threat and so any opposition to Russia is either a futile effort or a rapprochement between the two largest land powers in Asia.)
The paradox for American policymakers is that of all the countries opposing the United States, China is both the biggest threat and also the country most ripe for more positive impact. By any measure, China is the only country that comes close to rivaling the United States. Standing up to China is one of the few foreign policy measures that evokes sincere bipartisan support. At the same time, compared to countries such as Russia or North Korea, China is the most capitalized member of the Legion of Doom in the current international system. big benefits. more from trading with the rest of the world than with Russia. This week’s summit between Putin and Xi should provide some insight into how solid their partnership is becoming.
For American politicians in the future, the question will be one of many dubious options. They can continue to pursue a foreign policy that supports the anti-American coalition. They can prioritize containment of China and soften their approach to countries that pose an immediate threat to the United States, its allies and partners. Or they may decide that China is the devil they know best and try to strike a new balance in Sino-US relations.
Considering the unstable state of the world, the restoration of Sino-US relations is the most promising option. However, given the precarious state of American politics, this is unfortunately an option that both President Joe Biden and his Republican opponents are unlikely to accept.