Florida’s legislative session may have just begun, but lawmakers already have a lot to do. Partly because the Republicans there introduced flurry of bills which would turn K-12 and higher education into a state – from forcing public colleges and universities shut down any diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, and exclude students and minors in “critical race theory, gender studies, or intersectionality” to increased oversight of school libraries.

The legislative session will be chaired by the governor. Ron DeSantis’ priorities – but as he teases running nationally, DeSantis seems to be more focused on appealing to the broader national Republican Party constituency than the average Florida resident. In fact, his ongoing attacks on the so-called “awokeideology – especially as it relates to the public school system, of which he had previously spoken:parentingis one of the strongest signals that if DeSantis does run for president, he will seek the nomination by stoking some of the same cultural grievances that Republicans have been emphasizing for years.

This approach can work – at least in the primary GOP. after all, these messages helped to enable the rise to power of former President Donald Trump. But if DeSantis succeeds in securing the nomination, his tactics may come at the cost of alienating voters in the general election, especially suburban and independent voters.

However, first things first. If DeSantis wants to win the GOP nomination (assuming he does decides to throw his hat in the ring), his focus on race and education makes a lot of sense. It’s because GOP primary voters — especially social conservatives — who have long lamented their perceived decline in influence in American society, are likely to be quite receptive to these messages. Case in point: in joint survey with FiveThirtyEight, non-partisan research firm PerryUndem found that support – or lack thereof – for the Black Lives Matter movement was the number one issue. 1 predictor of attitudes towards voter choice in 2022 and a number of political positions. ace Tresa Undemco-founder of PerryUndem, told me that racial discontent has a lot of power and can lead to different consequences than, say, bills. targeted at LGBTQ students.

“Our data shows that views on race and racial ideology are top predictors of Republican voting. Thus, any measure that specifically addresses race will appeal to the vast majority of Republican voters,” Undem said. “This is a mobilizing question. There’s a lot of racial discontent among Republicans right now, and it’s mobilizing them in a way that other issues may not or may not.”

Other polls show that Republicans are less likely than the general public to support discussion of various race-related issues in K-12 schools. AFebruary Data for progress The poll, for example, found that while just over half of likely voters (52 percent) thought the Black Lives Matter movement should be age-appropriately taught, the percentage of Republicans who supported it was significantly lower (26 percent). Republicans were also less likely than all likely voters (48 percent versus 69 percent, respectively) to support age-appropriate discussions of contemporary racism and racial equality in the classroom. Meanwhile, a February poll of Americans from YouGov/Economist found that about a quarter of Republicans (23 percent) and voters who supported Trump in the 2020 election (25 percent) believe that K-12 schools teach “too much” the history of black Americans. Only 14 percent of Americans — and 6 percent of Democrats — thought so.

This data may be one reason Republicans seem confident that DeSantis’ focus on race in education could win over socially conservative voters in the GOP primary. During a telephone conversation with me, a Republican sociologist Whit Ayres pointed to Glenn Youngkin win in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial race after he stressed:parental rightsin the classroom as proof to GOP candidates and strategists that some education-related issues are attractive.

“Savvy Republican presidential candidates have historically made good use of education,” Ayres said. “Good Republican candidates have seen potential in education for years.”

It is noteworthy that not only DeSantis beats this drum. Although they have been sparing in their definitions of what exactly they consider to be critical race theory, former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley, who announced her candidacy for president last month, recently tweeted that it was “un-American”. Meanwhile, Trump was sound the alarm on critical racial theory in schools since at least 2020. But DeSantis maybe the most aggressive impact on education. He made a splash last year. after the signing of the disputed “Stop WOKE Law”, which governs the teaching of race in schools and workplaces in Florida. More recently, his administration blocked the doctrine advanced course in African American Studies for high school students statewide, stating that it “has largely no educational valueand then threatened cut ties with the college board at all.

DeSantis’ efforts to control what Florida students are taught seem to have found a receptive audience in other Republican-controlled states as well. Analysis by FiveThirtyEight has identified at least five copycat U.S. race-in-education bills that have moved beyond committee—many of them moving forward in states where there is a tripartite interaction between Republicans and government.

“All politicians look to what has been successful in these states as a model for themselves,” Ayres said. It makes sense, he added, especially because “DeSantis gave his own take on the issue of education.”

The rapid spread of these ideas in the red states really testifies to the potential strength of the DeSantis program in the Republican presidential primaries. But if he gets the nomination, it’s possible that DeSantis overdid it on how much the general public would like these moves. While proposals that address LGBTQ-related issues in schools may have broader general appeal, race-related culture war messages have a distinctly mixed reputation among general election voters. Understandably, some Republicans believe that the attack race-related teachings could win over some coveted voting blocs, especially white parents, but last year’s midterm elections showed that faith is not always translated into reality. Of course, DeSantis’ crushing victory was the start of a big conversation after Election Day, but a number of other Republicans which had uncompromising education positions on these issues are lost respective races. It may also be difficult for DeSantis to find a middle ground on these matters as we move into 2024, especially if he faces a string of Republican challengers who push him to the right (as he may have already experienced with both Trump and Haley). )

“Because Florida is so economically successful and so many people move here, I think DeSantis believes that – along with his tough stance on education – that will work for him,” he said. Sharon D Wright Austinprofessor of political science at the University of Florida. But, she added, the message may not resonate outside the core GOP base. “It is clear that he is trying to appeal to these suburban voters, white women in particular, but in doing so, he has also offended so many other voters such as black and LGBT voters. He also alienates independents and he definitely needs their support to win the general election,” she said.

This is in line with my recent report, which pointed to polls showing that voters in general have become increasingly wary of moves to ban critical race theory and other discussions of race in schools. That February Data for progress The survey, for example, showed that the vast majority of respondents were in favor of teaching topics such as racism and slavery, among other things, in K-12 schools. Among potential voters, 83 percent said slavery should be discussed “in an age-appropriate way,” compared to 11 percent of respondents who said it should not be taught at all. , had as high support (79 percent) among those polled as discussions about modern racism and racial equality (69 percent) and social and political activism (66 percent).

Data for Progress also asked voters if they support Florida’s offensive against the AP’s African American Studies course, and two-thirds of likely voters said they support this class is taught in secondary schools in their own communities. Of course, there were racial and partisan divisions when it came to how many voters supported this curriculum, but the vast majority of Democrats (89%), the large majority of independent voters (69%), and just under half of Republicans (44%). percent) were in favour.

But even if race-oriented education is not the best general election strategy— as predicted by the party itself it would be so in the run-up to last November’s midterm elections — it’s entirely possible that DeSantis could easily win through a host of other education-related channels. Legislators in Florida and several other states are also looking at a number of bills against transgender students. According to Undem, bills aimed at LGBTQ rights are less important to voters than racial issues. She said presenting the education debate as an attempt to empower parents could appeal to voters of all political stripes.

“Suburban and swing voters are more likely to oppose these racially motivated policies. But there is a lot of misinformation when it comes to gender identity and children legislation, and I think some parts of the population may be more receptive to these bills,” she said. “The country is pretty much still learning about gender identity, so some groups are ready to attack. The race is more egregious.”

Of course, this year’s legislative session may be far enough in the rearview mirror by the time the Republican nomination is decided, and whatever DeSantis does this year won’t matter much. But at the same time, and especially before he becomes a viable presidential candidate, DeSantis probably won’t slow down his crusade against race and education. That’s because at this point in the process, it’s more about asserting yourself as the heir of Trumpism than it is about challenging President Biden. That in itself raises an interesting question about DeSantis’ upcoming presidential candidacy: Will GOP primary voters accept thinly veiled Trumpism if it doesn’t come from Trump himself?